Boeing today forecast a total of $6.7trillion for aerospace and defence market over the next decade, up from $8.1 trillion
This is according to a released by Boeing today at the Paris Air Show,
The Boeing Market Outlook (BMO) includes a $3.1 trillion projected demand for commercial airplanes through 2028 as operators replace older jets with more capable and fuel-efficient models, and expand their fleets to accommodate the steady rise in air travel across emerging and established markets.
The BMO also projects $2.5 trillion of defence and space opportunities during the next decade as governments modernize military platforms and systems, pursue new technologies and capabilities and accelerate exploration from sea to space.
The projected spending – spanning military aircraft, autonomous systems, satellites, spacecraft and other products – continues to be global in nature with 40 percent of expenditures expected to originate outside of the United States.
Supporting the defense, space and commercial platforms with lifecycle solutions will fuel a services market valued at $3.1 trillion through 2028.
According to Boeing Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Enterprise Performance & Strategy Greg Smith, “Aerospace and defense continues to be a healthy and growing industry over the long term, boosted by strong fundamentals across the commercial, defense and services sectors and demand that is geographically-diverse and more balanced between replacement and growth than ever before.”
Boeing today also unveiled its 2019 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), a longer-term forecast that delves deeper into the market for commercial airplanes and services.
The newest CMO shows growing passenger volumes and increasing airplane retirements will drive the need for 44,040 new jets, valued at $6.8 trillion over the next two decades and up 3 per cent from a year ago.
The global commercial airplane fleet will also sustain the need for aviation services valued at $9.1 trillion, leading to a total commercial market opportunity of $16 trillion through 2038.
Boeing Commercial Marketing Vice President Randy Tinseth on his part said, “Time and again, commercial aviation has shown itself to be extremely resilient. Notwithstanding some recent moderation in passenger and cargo traffic growth, all indications are pointing to our industry sustaining its unprecedented streak of profitable expansion. In fact, we see a market that is broader, deeper and more balanced than we have seen in the past. The healthy market fundamentals will fuel a doubling of the commercial fleet over the next two decades and a massive ecosystem of lifecycle solutions to maintain and support it.”
Of the new airplane deliveries, forecasters say 44 per cent will go toward replacing aging aircraft while the rest will accommodate traffic growth.
Together, the new jets support an industry where passenger traffic will grow an average 4.6 per cent and cargo traffic will grow an average 4.2 percent. Factoring in the new airplanes and the jets that would remain in service, the global commercial fleet is expected to reach 50,660 airplanes by 2038. This is the first time the projected fleet has crested the 50,000 mark.
The biggest airplane segment remains single-aisles such as the 737 MAX, as operators are projected to demand 32,420 new airplanes.
This $3.8 trillion market is driven in large part by the continued strength of low-cost carriers, healthy replacement demand and continuing growth in Asia Pacific.
In the widebody segment, Boeing forecasts demand for 8,340 new passenger airplanes valued at more than $2.6 trillion over the next 20 years.
Widebody demand is spearheaded in part by a significant wave of older airplanes that will need to be replaced beginning in a few years. Bolstering the demand for larger aircraft, operators are expected to need 1,040 new large production freighters over the forecast period.
New Airplane Deliveries Through 2038 By Size
Airplane type Seats Total deliveries Market value
Regional jets 90 and below 2,240 $105 billion
Single-aisle 90 and above 32,420 $3,775 billion
Widebody 8,340 $2,650 billion
Freighter widebody ——— 1,040 $300 billion
Total ——– 44,040 $6,800 billion
The global airplane fleet will continue to generate significant demand for aviation services, including supply chain support (parts and parts logistics), maintenance and engineering services, aircraft modifications and airline operations.
Over the next 20 years, Boeing forecasts a $9.1 trillion market for commercial aviation services with annual growth of 4.2 per cent.
“This is a very dynamic and exciting marketplace, one that is driven by new technology and a relentless drive for greater efficiency, reliability and safety. On the technology front, we see operators using drones to inspect airplanes, and manufacturers delving into data analytics for insights to improve airplane maintenance and performance. Above all, operators are looking to providers to offer solutions that help them serve their customers more efficiently and reliably,” Tinseth said.
Major categories in the services forecast include the $2.4 trillion market for maintenance and engineering, which covers tasks required to maintain or restore the airworthiness of an aircraft and its systems, components and structures.
Another major category is the $1.1 trillion market for flight operations, which covers services associated with the flight deck, cabin services, crew training and management and airplane operations.