Boeing Forecasts 6,810 Aircraft For China, Puts Value At $1 Trillion In 20Yrs
…Becomes World’s First Trillion Dollar Aviation Market
Boeing, China’s leading provider of commercial airplanes, projects a demand for 6,810 new airplanes in the country over the next 20 years with an estimated value of $1.025 trillion
Boeing released its annual China Current Market Outlook (CMO) today in Beijing.
With this development, China becomes the first trillion dollar aviation market in Boeing’s forecast.
Speaking on the deal, the Vice President of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Randy Tinseth, said, “As China transitions to a more consumer-based economy, aviation will play a key role in its economic development. Because travel and transportation are key services, we expect to see passenger traffic grow 6.4 per cent annually in China over the next 20 years.”
Boeing predicts China will need 5,110 new single-aisle airplanes through 2035, accounting for 75 per cent of the total new deliveries.
Low-cost carriers and full-service airlines have been adding airplanes and expanding new point-to-point services to cater for both leisure and business travel demand from a rising middle class in China and throughout Asia.
Tinseth said that the backlog from Chinese customers demonstrates that the new 737 MAX 8 and the current Next-Generation 737-800 are at the heart of the single-aisle market.
Boeing forecasts the wide-body fleet will triple in size, requiring 1,560 new airplanes such as the 787, 777 and 777X.
This year’s forecast reflects a continued shift from very large airplanes to efficient new small and medium wide-body airplanes.
China’s single-aisle fleet currently accounts for about 18 per cent of global single-aisle aircraft; however, China’s wide body fleet only represents approximately 5 per cent of the global wide-body segment.
According to Tinseth, “The continuing expansion of China’s middle class, coupled with new visa policies and a wide range of wide-body airplanes with new technologies, capabilities and efficiencies, gives us every reason to expect a very bright future for China’s long-haul market.”
Driven by China’s growing e-commerce business – already the largest in the world – air cargo is expected to become a key driver for the continuous growth of aviation in China, with the need for 180 new freighters and 410 converted freighters.
New Airplane China Deliveries Through 2035
Airplane Type Seats Total Deliveries Dollar Value
Regional jets 90 and below 140 $10B
Single-aisle 90-230 5,110 $535B
Small wide-body 200-300 870 $240B
Medium wide-body 300-400 630 $220B
Large wide-body 400 and above 60 $20B
Total ———– 6,810 $1.025T
The total Boeing aircraft deliveries to China within the period is 17 per cent of world total while the total Dollar value of the aircraft is also 17 per cent of world total
Worldwide, Boeing projects investments of $5.9 trillion for 39,620 new commercial airplanes to be delivered during the next 20 years.
Today, Boeing jets are the mainstay of China’s air travel and cargo system and more than 50 per cent of all the commercial jetliners operating in China are Boeing airplanes.
Meanwhile, China has a component role on every current Boeing commercial airplane model – the Next-Generation 737, 747, 767, 777, as well as the world’s most technologically advanced airplane; the 787 Dreamliner.
Over 9,000 Boeing airplanes fly throughout the world with integrated China-built parts and assemblies.